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Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: August 2025
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Valid until the market close on September 30, 2025 This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Two Measures of Consumer Attitudes: August 2025
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What are consumers thinking about the economy? Their collective mood offers crucial clues for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike. Two prominent monthly surveys, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), aim to capture this vital pulse. In August, these gauges sent similar signals with consumer attitudes worsening slightly from the previous month. The MCSI fell for the first time in four months, dropping to 58.2, while the CCI edged down to 97.4.
Two Measures of Inflation: July 2025
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Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of July 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.9% and core CPI at 3.1%.
Bill Bengen Boosts the “4% rule” to 4.7%
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Bill Bengen is an MIT-educated rocket scientist, retired financial advisor, and somewhat unintentional founder of “the 4% rule.” The widely used rule of thumb resulted from a study he did more than 30 years ago. His new book, “A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More” is an update of this study.
Chicago PMI Contracts for 21st Consecutive Month
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The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) slowed in August, reversing most of the gains seen in July. The index fell 5.6 points to 41.5, marking the 21st consecutive month of contraction for the index.
Not Even Buffett’s Confidence Buy Can Spur a Housing Recovery
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There’s been renewed optimism about housing in the stock market recently. Mortgage rates have fallen and home improvement giants Home Depot Inc. and Lowe’s Cos Inc. reported an uptick in activity in July.
Momentum Strategies & Physics: What Mass & Velocity Tell Us
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Recently, we have seen rapid shifts in and out of various sectors and stock factors that disrupt momentum strategies. Therefore, understanding how momentum strategies work can help you better identify when they might be effective and when it's time to switch to a different approach.
Bitcoin ETFs & the Rising Tide of Leverage
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While I make no judgment about bitcoin’s intrinsic value, I do believe we’re witnessing the early stages of a structurally driven price expansion — powered not by sentiment, but by product development, market mechanics, and leverage.
World Bank Sells $510 Million of Bonds Backed by Loans to Companies in Developing Markets
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The World Bank sold $510 million of bonds backed by loans it gave companies across the developing world, part of its efforts to lure more institutional investors to regions where borrowers have a harder time raising cash.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
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Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.5% in July and was up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 1.6% year-over-year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.2% in July
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With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up 0.37% month-over-month. When adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.17%.
Core PCE Inflation Rises 2.9% in July, as Expected
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The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.9% year-over-year in July. This was consistent with the forecast and a slight pickup from June's 2.8% reading. On a monthly basis, the core index was up 0.3%, as expected.
NVIDIA, PCE Inflation, and Auto Sales May Shape the September Backdrop
1756468919 from ADVSRPERSP
NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings are the focus tonight, but investors’ attention will quickly shift back to the macro later this week. According to our Economic Calendar, with data licensed from Econoday Inc., a second read on Q2 GDP hits the tape Thursday morning.
S&P 500 Index: All Twisted Up in the Game
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Is the U.S. economy “all twisted up in the game” with the S&P 500 Index dominated by technology/AI stocks? How much is investor confidence affecting consumer confidence? How much has the increase in financial advice and advisors been fed by the success of this stock market?
So Long Sweet Summer: A Closer Look at September Seasonals
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The financial markets often shift gears in September, moving away from the quiet summer months marked by low trading volumes and limited volatility, and entering a period historically associated with seasonal weakness and increased market instability.
After Years of Pain, Riskiest Stocks Finally See Some Momentum
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The Russell 2000 Index last posted an all-time high on Nov. 8, 2021, and is still almost 3% from that level. Unless something drastic happens by Friday, it will mark the small-cap gauge’s longest streak without a record since the dot-com bubble.
The Secret to Seamless Solutions
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A full-scale implementation partner does the behind-the-scenes—but critically necessary—work of managing portfolios according to the investment objectives, risk tolerance and preferences set by an investment team. In doing so, they free up time and energy for the investment staff to focus on decision-making.
Nvidia Forecasts Decelerating Growth After Two-Year AI Boom
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Nvidia Corp., the world’s most valuable company, gave a tepid revenue forecast for the current period, signaling that growth is decelerating after a staggering two-year boom in artificial intelligence spending.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Mostly Unchanged in August
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The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity was mostly unchanged in August, with the composite index remaining at 1. This is the highest level for the index since September 2022. Meanwhile, future expectations hit a six month high, rising from 8 in July to 11 in August.
America's Driving Habits: June 2025
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Travel on all roads and streets increased in June. The 12-month moving average was up 0.07% month-over-month and was up 0.96% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was flat month-over-month and down 0.94% year-over-year.
China Gets Closer to Finding Its Own Nvidia
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A new China-buys-China narrative is taking shape as Beijing steps up its tech rivalry with the US. The world’s second-largest economy not only wants to build generative AI models, but power them with its own hardware, redrawing a supply chain dominated by Nvidia Corp.
Q2 GDP Second Estimate: Real GDP at 3.3%, Higher Than Expected
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The U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter, posting a strong rebound from earlier in the year. The BEA's second estimate of real gross domestic product showed economic growth increased at an annual rate of 3.3% in Q2 2025. The latest estimate was higher than the 3.0% forecast and marked a significant turn around from the Q1 final estimate of -0.5%.
Initial Unemployment Claims Down 5K, Lower Than Expected
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In the week ending August 23rd, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 229,000. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 231,000 forecast.
Waiting on Walmart: One Retailer, Many Signals
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While investors often look to the Federal Reserve for macroeconomic signals, Walmart’s earnings may offer even more insight. As a barometer of consumer behavior, pricing trends and tariff impacts, Walmart is a must-watch for anyone trying to understand the real-time U.S. economy.
Public Insights on Private Credit: The Art of Vintage Selection
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Benefit Street Partners believes private credit managers need to focus on the financial conditions during a fund’s investment period. Skilled managers know when to dynamically deploy more capital or pull back, as the weather changes.