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ISM Services PMI Returns to Expansion Territory in June
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The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8. This was consistent with the forecast and moves the index back into expansion territory after one month of contraction.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Sustained in June
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The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 29th consecutive month of expansion but was a slight slow down from May's 53.7 reading.
AstraZeneca CEO Wants to Move Listing to US, Times Reports
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AstraZeneca Plc’s Chief Executive Officer Pascal Soriot wants to move the drugmaker’s stock listing to the US, the Times reported, in what would be another sign of the UK’s waning status as a magnet for global capital.
Employment Report: 147K Jobs Added in June, More Than Expected
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The latest employment report showed that 147,000 jobs were added in June, up from 144,000 in May and higher than the expected 111,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched lower to 4.1%.
Unemployment Claims Down 4K, Lower Than Expected
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In the week ending June 28th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 233,000. This represents a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 240,000 forecast.
Midyear Fixed Income Outlook: Starting Yields Matter Amid Uncertainty
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We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.
VOO Still Heavyweight ETF Champ & Other 1st Half Trends
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With the first half of 2025 in the books, it’s been a very interesting six months — emphasis on “V” because the S&P 500 saw a nice V-shaped formation following the April sell-off. As markets always reveal, interesting times call for interesting ETF trends to follow.
Balancing Act: Building Resilient Portfolios in a Changing Landscape
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In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.
The Lasting Impact of the COVID M2 Surge: Why Diversification Is More Crucial Than Ever
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When the Fed increased the M2 money supply by over 40% during the COVID crisis, our instinct was that the implications would extend far beyond a temporary boost to the U.S. stock market and higher inflation. That intuition is proving accurate. We’re now seeing the long-term ripple effects play out in real time across multiple asset classes and global markets.
Two Measures of Inflation: May 2025
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Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of May 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.8%.
Secular Bull and Bear Market Trends: June 2025
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The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
The Total Return Roller Coaster: June 2025
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Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?
Expand Your Mind and Your Commodity Universe
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For good reasons, many investors have a love-hate relationship with commodity investments. Operationally, the annoying K-1 form complicates tax filing, although thankfully the industry has started to launch “no K-1” funds.
ADP National Employment Report: 33K Private Jobs Unexpectedly Lost in June
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The ADP employment report revealed that 33,000 nonfarm private jobs were unexpectedly lost in June, down from the 29,000 addition in May. This is the first monthly reduction since March 2023 when there was a decline of 53,000 jobs. The latest reading was lower than the expected 99,000 addition.
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - June 2025
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Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
Netflix’s Lofty Valuation Has Even Bullish Investors Nervous
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Netflix Inc. investors face a dilemma: Continue to bet on a stock that has delivered best-in-class returns over the past year or reconsider shares that increasingly look like they’re priced for perfection.
Prevailing Skepticism Means Rally Has More Room
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Markets notched fresh all-time highs on Friday with a positive tone and geopolitical outlook. Swift retreat in oil back to pre-strike levels, combined with friendlier NATO negotiations and de-escalated fighting in Iran restored risk appetite.
EU to Accept Trump Universal Tariff but Seeks Key Exemptions
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The European Union is willing to accept a trade arrangement with the US that includes a 10% universal tariff on many of the bloc’s exports, but wants the US to commit to lower rates than that on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft.